Workshop ENV 5, Wednesday 21 June, 16.00 - 17.30

Travel to the future: the potential of imagination

Rita Kwakkestein, staff member transport team, the Netherlands Society for Nature and Environment Clasien Slebos, former staff member of the same organisation. Journey in the future: the power of imagination Mobility is a part of life, and will probably be even more important in future. In fact, mobility is freedom. Environmental organizations that point out the negative impacts on the environment are readily dismissed as whiners and 'gloom and doom merchants'. We - six environmental organizations concerned about traffic issues - wanted to show that a different approach is possible and we are convinced that mobility in the future can be both pleasant and sustainable. In June 1999 we presented Journey in the future: a colourful book containing a vision of a transport system for 2030, illustrated with often surprising ideas. Journey in the future is based on ideas on sustainable mobility provided by our supporters and generated during a number of workshops, a literature study and interviews. It is important that the ideas reflect life in 2030 and so much attention has been paid to what trendwatchers have to say. The vision of the future sketched out here serves two purposes for us. It shows all those involved in policies for mobility that there is another way forward that offers mobility that is both pleasant and sustainable. For ourselves, it is a source of inspiration and a reference point for backcasting, a method we use to define our priorities more clearly. In this workshop we want to talk about the power of imagination. How do you compose a vision of the future? What is its value? And how can you use?

Karst Geurs, researcher traffic and transport, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands Bert Van Wee, co-ordinator traffic and transport, professor in landuse, transport and environment, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Utrecht University Travel to the future: the role of non-motorised modes in an environmentally sustainable transport system What will the transport system look like if transport emissions are reduced by 80%-90% by 2030? What are the policy instruments available and when will they have to be implemented to realise these sharp emission reductions? What are the social and economic impacts of such an environmentally sustainable transport system? These questions has been addressed in a pilot study for the Netherlands carried out as part of the OECD project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST). This paper describes the results of the study, focusing on the role of the bicycle in an environmentally sustainable transport system. The main conclusions are: * EST can only be met if mobility patterns radically change and future technological development is much greater than in the past. The role the bicycle in the transport system will strongly increase; the share in total passenger transport kilometres will triple; * To achieve a strong reduction in motorised transport and a shift to non-motorised transport, a system of tradeable CO2 emission permits is considered to be the most important instrument. Land use policies and improving bicycle facilities are primarily seen as instruments to improve accessibility; * If the shift towards non-motorised transport is to be realised, measures will have to be taken and instruments implemented in the short term, mainly because of the long pre-implementation and implementation period of land-use and infrastructure policies; * The economic impacts of the shift from motorised passenger travel to non-motorised travel are probably small: Dutch society will function reasonably well with less motorised transport. Moreover, EST will have significant social benefits: differences in travel behaviour and thus access to social and economic opportunities between income groups will be smaller, traffic safety increases and public health will improve.